Following the highly anticipated launch of Tesla's Robotaxi, the company's stock price suffered a significant drop. On October 11th, Tesla's stock closed at $217.80, down by 8.78%, with its market value shrinking by approximately $67 billion overnight, equivalent to over 470 billion yuan in Chinese currency. This decline led among the seven major technology stocks, known as the Magnificent 7.

Did Cybercab Fall Short of Expectations?

At the October 11th launch event, Tesla unveiled its self-developed Robotaxi, the Cybercab, an autonomous taxi without a steering wheel or pedals. As the culmination of Tesla's autonomous driving technology, the Cybercab features numerous innovative aspects. Firstly, it utilizes pure vision sensors and AI technology, enabling autonomous driving without the need for expensive equipment. Secondly, the Cybercab's cost is well-controlled, with the estimated vehicle cost below $30,000, and plans to start production in 2026, with a large-scale rollout expected before 2027. Additionally, the Cybercab boasts a high level of safety and reliability, with Musk stating that its safety level could be around ten times higher than human driving.

Market analysts have pointed out that although Tesla's autonomous driving technology is forward-looking, investors' concerns about its commercial prospects and profitability may have led to the stock price drop. However, some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's autonomous taxi business. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Tesla's estimated charge of $0.20 per mile is in line with expectations, validating Tesla's cost advantage over existing ride-hailing services such as Uber and Waymo.

Tesla's autonomous taxi business is not only significant for the company itself but also holds the potential to boost the entire autonomous driving industry. The market generally believes that if the Cybercab can meet Musk's promised standards, it will promote the wider application of autonomous driving technology. Several A-share concept stocks related to autonomous driving, including Runhe Software and Chengmai Technology, saw a counter-trend increase on October 11th. Runhe Software's stock price surged by 17.03%, while Chengmai Technology's increase reached 7.96%.

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Domestic Robotaxis Catching Up

Faced with Tesla's strong momentum, domestic Robotaxi companies have not backed down. On the contrary, they are accelerating their layout in the autonomous taxi market, striving to achieve breakthroughs in commercial operations. For instance, Pony.ai has deployed autonomous driving fleets in the four major cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, and has launched commercial paid services in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Baidu's RoboTaxi service, known as萝卜快跑, is also about to enter overseas markets and collaborate with leading global automotive and technology companies.

Domestic Robotaxi companies have unique advantages in terms of technical strength, policy support, and operational costs. For example, on the complex urban roads in China, domestic Robotaxi companies place greater emphasis on the application of integrated sensor solutions (including LiDAR, cameras, millimeter-wave radar, etc.) to ensure the safety and reliability of the vehicles. In addition, domestic Robotaxi companies are actively exploring effective ways to reduce the manufacturing costs and operational costs of the entire vehicle to enhance competitiveness.

Broad Prospects for the Robotaxi Market

According to market forecasts, Robotaxis are expected to achieve规模化 deployment around 2026 and are projected to be widely adopted globally by 2030. In the Chinese market, the penetration rate of Robotaxis is expected to reach 31.8%, and by 2035, it is projected to reach 69.3%. This market outlook has attracted the attention of numerous enterprises and investors.However, the commercial operation of Robotaxis still faces numerous challenges. For instance, how to address issues of accident liability and insurance, establish public trust in new technologies, integrate with existing transportation systems, and handle relationships with taxi and ride-hailing service providers all require further discussion and resolution. In addition, the high cost of vehicle manufacturing is one of the core reasons for the current high unit service costs. Therefore, how to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency while ensuring safety and reliability will be key issues that future Robotaxi companies need to focus on.