Overnight in the European and American markets, a "peace trade" unfolded, coupled with the resurgence of COVID-19 in several regions of China, which sparked market concerns about crude oil demand. Consequently, the price of WTI crude oil fell below the $100 mark at one point. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.72 at 1:20 AM Beijing time on March 30, a decrease of 1.6%, settling at $104.24 per barrel, marking the lowest closing price for the nearest month contract since March 17. Early Tuesday morning, the WTI crude oil futures price briefly broke through the $100 threshold.

The May Brent crude oil futures price on the洲际交易所 (ICE) fell by $2.25, a decrease of 2%, closing at $110.23 per barrel. As of 3:20 PM Beijing time on March 30, the Brent crude oil price was reported at $110.04 per barrel. On March 8, both Brent and WTI reached their highest levels in nearly eight years at $130 and $139, respectively.

The significant influence stems from the substantial progress made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The first face-to-face talks between Russia and Ukraine in two weeks took place in Istanbul, Turkey, on Tuesday. The first day of negotiations concluded with reports of progress that buoyed market sentiment. Following the talks, both Russia and Ukraine made statements indicating progress on significant issues, with key details to be decided after reporting to both countries' top leaders.

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The President of Turkey stated that efforts are being made to facilitate a face-to-face meeting between the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine. Deputy Defense Minister of Russia, Fomin, announced that Russia would cease military activities near Kyiv and Chernihiv to create conditions for Russia-Ukraine dialogue.

Meanwhile, the United States, another key player in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has softened its stance. Previously, it had refused a meeting between the U.S. President and the Russian President, but now it is preparing for a conditional meeting with the Russian President!

These developments have led to signs of easing in the most severe geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe, driving oil prices to plummet for two consecutive days, with a brief drop below $100 per barrel on March 29.

I have always emphasized that there is no fundamental driving force for oil prices to rise significantly, whether from the perspective of demand or supply. Indeed, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) just reported on Twitter that solar and wind power generation have achieved breakthrough progress, and Musk also retweeted and commented that solar and wind power generation have indeed made significant breakthroughs. It is believed that more specific news should follow. This would be a significant bearish factor for fossil fuels.

Musk recently said in an interview: "In the long run, most of the energy for human civilization will come from solar power, which requires the use of batteries for energy storage, as it is clear that the sun is only out during the day and sometimes it is cloudy, so solar panels are needed. In the long term, this will be the main means of powering human civilization."Energy supply has become diversified, and the era of relying solely on oil energy or fossil fuels has come to an end. Most taxis, ride-hailing services, public buses, and freight vehicles are now using new energy vehicles. These new energy vehicles are rapidly entering households, making fossil fuels no longer a rigid demand. Moreover, with the development and utilization of solar energy, wind energy, nuclear energy, hydrogen energy, shale gas, and other energy sources, the demand for oil is expected to show a gradual downward trend.

The rigid driving force behind the rise in international crude oil prices has weakened. I still maintain my view that it is highly probable for international oil prices to return to below $100!