**Pre-Market News Summary**

**Macro:**

The State Council Information Office is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10 am today, where the Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, will introduce the situation related to "strengthening the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promoting high-quality economic development," and answer questions from journalists.

Federal Reserve's Logan stated that recent inflation data is "very welcome"; reducing restrictive policies can also cool down inflation; the US economy remains strong and stable; gradually adjusting policies towards a neutral interest rate is of great significance.

US September PPI rose by 1.8% year-on-year, estimated to rise by 1.6%, with the previous value rising by 1.7%; US September PPI remained unchanged month-on-month, estimated to rise by 0.1%, with the previous value rising by 0.2%.

The three major US stock indexes closed higher collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.97%, the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index up by 0.61%, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 Indexes continuing to set new closing highs. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index up by 0.91%, down by 6.87% for the week.

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International oil prices fell across the board, with the US November contract down by 0.47% to $75.49 per barrel, up by 1.49% for the week. The December contract for Brent crude fell by 0.77% to $78.86 per barrel, up by 0.95% for the week. COMEX gold futures closed up by 1.32% at $2674.2 per ounce, up by 0.24% for the week. COMEX silver futures closed up by 1.58% at $31.735 per ounce, down by 2.03% for the week.

**Industry:**

The China Securities Regulatory Commission and six other departments issued the "Opinions on Strengthening Supervision to Prevent Risks and Promote High-Quality Development of the Futures Market," which systematically and comprehensively deploys 17 policy measures in 8 areas. The "Opinions" propose to strengthen penetrating supervision of various trading behaviors, study effective supervision of accounts with similar trading behaviors; strengthen the whole process supervision of high-frequency trading, and cancel the fee reduction for high-frequency trading. Resolutely suppress excessive speculation and hype, strictly prevent enterprises from using credit funds for speculative transactions in commodity futures; strictly investigate market manipulation, insider trading, and other illegal and irregular behaviors, and strictly and promptly handle major cases in the futures market. Enrich the trading varieties of stock index futures and options, promote commercial banks to participate in the pilot of government bond futures trading in a stable and orderly manner, and study the inclusion of stock index futures and government bond futures in the opening up to specific varieties.

**Company:**Tesla held a "We, Robot" press conference, officially launching the autonomous taxi Cybercab, which is a two-door, two-seater car without a steering wheel or pedals, and uses inductive charging. Tesla also unveiled the autonomous truck Robovan, which can accommodate up to 20 people and can also be used for cargo transportation. Tesla CEO Elon Musk introduced that the cost of the Cybercab will be less than $30,000, and it is expected to start production in 2026, reaching mass production levels by 2027. The latest progress of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus was also announced, with the cost of mass production expected to be between $20,000 and $30,000. Musk also stated that he expects to launch the Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature in Texas and California next year.

CICC announced that due to the company's suspected negligence in the sponsorship business of SiChuanxin's IPO, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has decided to file a case against the company.

II. Outlook

10.13 - China's September CPI

III. Public Opinion Hotspots

Data Elements - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "National Data Standard System Construction Guide", aiming to basically complete the construction of the national data standard system by the end of 2026.

Large Finance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange adjusts the designated trading declaration instruction time, private equity insiders: to avoid trading congestion and reduce the pressure of instantaneous data reception; Pan Gongsheng, the first phase of the mutual exchange convenience of securities, funds, and insurance companies is 500 billion, and the funds obtained can only be used for investment in the stock market.

Huawei HarmonyOS - The native HarmonyOS system started public testing on October 8; the first batch of compatible Mate 60 / X5 series phones, MatePad Pro 13.2-inch series tablets; Huawei HarmonyOS NEXT system supports the application clone feature. After testing, the system can open up to 6 identical applications, each of which can be used independently.

Autonomous Driving/Tesla - Tesla released the autonomous taxi on October 11, with wireless charging being the biggest highlight; Guotai Junan: Tesla FSD is expected to enter China, accelerating the development of the intelligent driving industry.

IV. Hot Research Reports and Minutes1. **Guosheng Macro Xiong Yuan**: It may be a package of measures, with a total stimulus scale that should be quite substantial and carried out in 3 steps.

**Events**

- Fiscal stimulus may be late, but it will not be absent. The financial policy package on 9.24, the Politburo meeting on 9.26, and the relaxation of real estate in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen at the end of September all point to a significant shift in the underlying logic of policy, highlighting the country's determination to stabilize growth, expectations, and the market.

- The Ministry of Finance press conference on Saturday, 10.12, should present the overall thinking of subsequent fiscal policies, which is likely to be a package of measures rather than a single scale stimulus: We expect that there will be financial arrangements to meet the current fiscal deficit and debt pressure, as well as long-term financial and institutional arrangements. For example, the stimulus model may shift from infrastructure stimulus to consumption stimulus (livelihood subsidies, etc.), and a long-term mechanism for local debt resolution. We tend to believe that if the final combination is like this, the stock market can be more optimistic.

- The scale of stimulus that has attracted market attention, we expect, may be carried out in 3 steps:

1) Possible expansion of the deficit and issuance of additional government bonds, which requires approval by the National People's Congress. According to convention, the nearest should be at the end of October or early November, and related proposals may be announced around October 20th. Based on our previous calculations, the fiscal revenue gap for the year alone could exceed 2.5 trillion.

2) The Ministry of Finance press conference on Saturday, 10.12, if it announces "real money," it should be within the financial authority's own allocation, which may include: 1) Unused local debt limits (this part should be at the trillion level), such as for debt resolution, similar to last year's 1.4 trillion special refinancing bonds; 2) Expanding the use of special bonds, such as capital replenishment, debt resolution, etc.; 3) Advancing the 2025 special bond quota, central budget investment plan, etc.

The third is long-term arrangements, focusing on the end-of-year Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, the Ministry of Finance annual meeting, and the Two Sessions next year.

- Overall, we continue to suggest: The policy has shifted, the underlying logic of central leverage has changed, the Chinese version of quantitative easing is on the way, the central bank is approaching direct "entry," and a substantial fiscal stimulus can be expected; The underlying logic of stable growth has changed, the focus has temporarily returned to real estate, and promoting consumption has also begun to focus on improving residents' consumption capacity.

- For the market, in the short term, focus on 4 points: 1) The actual strength of this round of fiscal plans; 2) The progress of real estate sales, housing prices, and land sales, that is, whether real estate can "stop falling and stabilize"; 3) Changes in expectations for Fed rate cuts, the U.S. September CPI announced on Thursday, 10.10, is very key; 4) The U.S. election, the vote count on November 5th.