Sources say that Saudi Arabia has won temporary support from OPEC+ for further production cuts, with other member countries agreeing to contribute, which is expected to reduce supplies by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2 million bpd in the first quarter of next year.

On Thursday, the latest news indicated that OPEC+ has agreed in principle to an additional cut of 1 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia reducing production by 1 million bpd and Russia cutting output by 500,000 bpd. The OPEC+ ministerial meeting is still ongoing.

Earlier, sources revealed that, depending on the extent to which countries are willing to contribute, the total reduction could approach 2 million bpd.

Two other representatives stated that a new round of production cuts could reduce the supply on the market by 1 million bpd to 2 million bpd in the first quarter of next year.

The leader of OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, has been urging the alliance's member countries to join in limiting supplies to avoid another oil glut next year.

Algeria's Energy Minister stated that the country has agreed to an additional reduction of 50,000 bpd in January oil production. OPEC+ may hold another meeting before the end of the year.

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Additionally, the draft communiqué shows that Angola's OPEC+ production quota is set at 1.1 million barrels per day; Nigeria's OPEC+ production quota is set at 1.5 million barrels per day.

Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects, said that an additional cut of 1 million bpd may be the upper limit that the alliance can actually agree upon, "which does not necessarily mean the final outcome."

Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, stated that Saudi Arabia does not want to bear additional cuts alone. "We can envision a scenario where Russia and Saudi Arabia extend the production cuts into the first quarter of 2024 and form a coalition to voluntarily adjust oil policies."

According to representatives attending the meeting and those familiar with Saudi Arabia's thinking, Saudi Arabia warned that if other member countries do not make greater contributions, it may cancel existing voluntary production cuts, which, if the agreement cannot be finalized, would put the oil market on the brink of danger."Saudi Arabia has made it very clear that any production cut must be a joint effort," said Jorge León, of Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official.

Amrita Sen, head of research at consulting firm Energy Aspects Ltd., said: "I think (OPEC+) will reach an agreement because the alliance is under a lot of pressure—oil prices have plummeted, and there are concerns about the global economic growth outlook."

She added that the new official production cut is expected to be 1 million barrels per day, but the actual reduction will be only half of that, as some countries' output is already below target.

As traders have bet that OPEC+ will reach an agreement to further tighten the market, international crude oil has risen in recent days. On Thursday, Brent crude prices hit their highest level since early November, with a gain of about 6% since last Friday.