Over 70% of surveyed economists believe that the U.S. economy is unlikely to fall into a recession, and the Federal Reserve can achieve a "delicate balance."

A survey released on Monday showed that the majority of economists believe that the U.S. economy may avoid a recession next year, even if the job market eventually softens under the pressure of high interest rates.

Among the economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), only 24% believe there is a significant likelihood of the U.S. economy falling into a recession in 2024.

The 38 economists surveyed come from well-known organizations and institutions such as Morgan Stanley and the University of Arkansas.

Such forecasts imply that people believe the Federal Reserve can achieve a delicate balance, slowing the economy just enough to control inflation without completely stifling economic growth.

The association's president, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner, said in a statement:

"Although most respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the future, most expect the unemployment rate not to exceed 5%."

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The Federal Reserve has raised its main interest rate from almost zero at the beginning of last year to the highest level since the early 2000s, currently at 5.25%-5.5%.

However, despite this, the job market remains very stable, with the unemployment rate remaining at a low of 3.9% in October.

Most economists surveyed expect inflation to continue to slow down in 2024, with many saying that inflation may not fully reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year.Of course, economists only anticipate that the pace of price increases will slow down, not reverse, meaning that the prices of groceries, haircuts, and other items may not return to the levels before the takeoff of U.S. inflation in 2021.

The median forecast of the surveyed economists indicates that the CPI data for the last three months of 2024 in the United States will rise by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year.

There is a divergence of expectations among economists regarding when the Federal Reserve may start to lower interest rates. Lowering interest rates can alleviate economic pressures and boost financial markets.

Some economists believe that the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may occur in the first three months of 2024, while about a quarter of the respondents think that the rate cut may not be achieved until the last three months of next year.